How Pricing Works - Cycle Exchange

The pricing model uses three data sources to give you a recommended buy price: your historical sales data, 99spokes RRP data, and live market prices. Each approach has its strengths, and you can choose which to weight more heavily depending on the bike.

Data Source 1: Your Sold Stock

Finding Similar Bikes Primary Source

We search your sales history for bikes that match the search criteria - same brand, similar model name, and comparable year. An AI filter then narrows this down to the most relevant matches, removing bikes that look similar on paper but aren't really comparable (e.g., different frame material, wrong discipline).

From those filtered matches, we calculate:

Median Sold Price - What you actually sold similar bikes for (using median protects against outliers)
Median Velocity - How many days those bikes sat before selling

Velocity-Based Margin

The target margin adjusts based on how quickly similar bikes have sold. Faster turnover = slimmer margin acceptable. Slower stock = need more margin to justify holding costs.

Fast sellers (<30 days) 32% margin

Normal speed (30-60 days) 38% margin

Slow movers (>60 days) 42% margin

Example

Similar bikes sold for median £3,000 in 25 days (fast). Target margin = 32%.

Buy Price = £3,000 x (1 - 0.32) = £2,040

Data Source 2: 99spokes RRP

RRP-Based Calculation ~57,000 bikes

When you search for a bike, we try to match it against our 99spokes database which has the original GBP retail prices. This gives us a starting point based on what the bike was worth new.

The calculation applies several adjustments to get from RRP to a buy price:

Start with RRP £6,000

Year depreciation (5% per year from 2025) - 15% for 2022

Desirability discount (A/B/C brand tier) - 10% for B-tier

Condition discount - 10% for "Good"

Margin factor x 60%

Safety buffer - £100

Buy Price £2,240

Desirability tiers reflect how easily a brand sells. A-tier (Specialized, Trek) holds value better than C-tier (lesser-known brands). These can be adjusted in Settings.

Data Source 3: Live Market Data

eBay/Marketplace Prices Real-time

If you click "Get AI Market Data", we search current eBay listings for similar bikes and show you what they're actually listed for right now. This helps when:

The bike is rare and you don't have much sold history
Market prices have moved significantly since your last sale
You want to validate the other calculations against current asking prices

If live listings are higher than your historical median, it suggests you can price more aggressively. If they're lower, the market may have softened.

The Three Price Tiers

Safe Price

Target margin + 5%

Lower offer, but if accepted you're guaranteed solid profit. Use when you're unsure about the bike or market is soft.

Target Price

Calculated margin (32-42%)

Our recommendation based on velocity and data. The "sweet spot" for most purchases.

Max Price

Target margin - 8%

Higher offer to win competitive deals. Use when the seller has multiple offers or the bike is highly desirable.

Condition Adjustments

How Condition Affects Price

The customer selects a condition rating when submitting their bike. This applies a discount to the calculated price:

Mint / Like New No discount

Excellent -5%

Good -10%

Fair -15%

When Both Sources Are Available

Blending Sold Data + 99spokes

If you have both sold stock data AND a 99spokes RRP match, the model can blend them. When you apply an autopricer match, the final buy price is a 50/50 blend of:

Your historical sold-stock-based buy price
The 99spokes RRP-based buy price

This gives you the benefit of both real sales data and manufacturer pricing data.

Quick Reference

When to Trust Which Source

Lots of sold history (10+ similar bikes) - Trust sold stock data, it's your ground truth
Few or no sales - Rely on 99spokes RRP calculation
Unusual/rare bike - Check live market data to validate
Market feels different - Use live data to sense-check historical prices